What assumption underlies the USDA projections used as a 'neutral benchmark' for future supply?

Normal weather conditions

A key structural vulnerability identified in the modern food environment is the absence of dedicated, long-term planning mechanisms, unlike those robustly established for sectors like energy or water. In the United States context, agencies like the USDA often rely on projections that serve as a neutral benchmark. This benchmark explicitly assumes that weather patterns will remain normal, failing to incorporate explicit contingencies for potential climate shocks or other external disruptions. This reliance on stability is becoming increasingly tenuous given warnings from intelligence communities about the unpredictable interaction between climate change, demographic shifts, and economic instability.